William Louis Ascher

Advisory Committee

• B.A., University of Michigan (Political Science)
• M. Phil., Yale University (Political Science)
• Ph.D., Yale University (Political Science)

• Donald C. McKenna Professor of Government and Economics, Claremont McKenna College 2000

• Principal Research Fellow, Centre for Energy, Petroleum, Mineral Law & Policy, University of Dundee, Scotland, 2005-08
• Adjunct Professor, Natural Resources and Environmental Management Program, Mae Fah Luang University, Chiangrai, Thailand, 2006-
• Fulbright Senior Specialist, 2006

• Duke University, Professor of Public Policy Studies and Political Science, 1984-2000
• Johns Hopkins University Department of Political Science, Assistant Professor, 1973-79; Associate Professor, 1979-84
• University of Pennsylvania Department of Political Science, Lecturer, 1972-73
• Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Santiago de Chile, Visiting Researcher, 1972
• Yale University Department of Political Science, Teaching Assistant, 1968; Research Assistant, 1969-71

• Vice President and Dean of the Faculty, Claremont McKenna College, 2000-05
• Director, Center for International Development Research, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, 1985-2000
• Director, Program in International Development Policy, Center for International Development Research, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, 1986-2000
• Director and Chair, Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University, 1994-97
• Team Leader, Planning Team for the Asian International University, 1995-97
• Co-Principal Investigator, "Policy Assistance on Promoting Sustainable Development and the Environment," USAID cooperative agreement, and Chair, Executive Committee, Duke University Center for Tropical Conservation, 1991-96
• Editor-in-Chief, Policy Sciences, 1986-90
• Project Director, Study Task Force and International Commission for Central American Recovery and Development, 1987-89
• Director, 1992-94 (previously Associate Director 1990-92), Duke-UNC Program in Latin American Studies

• Yale University Fellowship, 1968-69
• Falk Fellowship, 1969-70
• National Science Foundation Fellowship, 1970-71
• Foreign Area Fellowship, Social Science Research Council, 1971-72
• International Affairs Fellowship, Council on Foreign Relations, 1979-80
• Howard D. Johnson Distinguished Teaching Award, Duke University, 1988
• Harold D. Lasswell Prize [best article in Policy Sciences, Vol. 25, 1993]
• “Landmarks in the Policy Sciences” Recognition, Policy Sciences [for contributions to the appraisal of forecasting], 2000
• Harold D. Lasswell Prize [best article in Policy Sciences, Vol. 37, 2004]
• Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Fellow, 2006

• Hudson Institute, 1973-80
• State Department Foreign Service Institute, 1980-85
• Stone & Webster 1980
• World Bank, 1980-81; 1988; 1990; 1991; 1996-99; 2004-05
• Woodrow Wilson Center, Smithsonian Institution, 2000-01
• Ford Foundation, 2002
• Environmental Protection Agency, 2003- Service to the Profession and Public Service:
• Editorial Boards: Policy Sciences, 1980-; Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1984-; International Journal of Forecasting, 1985-2002; Sustainability Science, 2006-
• Counselor, Policy Sciences Center, New York, 1974-
• Board of Directors, Policy Sciences Center, New York, 1984-
• Board of Overseers, International Center for Self Governance, Institute for Contemporary Studies, 1991-93
• Member, Board of Directors, Global Fund for Children, Washington, D.C., 1995-2005
• Executive Committee, Society of Policy Sciences, 1996-
• Member, Advisory Group on the Future of Science, U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on Science, Committee on Science, Space and Technology, 1992-4
• Member, International Advisory Board, Shehu Shagari World Institute, Abuja, Nigeria, 1998-2000
• Member, World Bank Archives Advisory Group, 1998-2001
• Vice President, Policy Sciences Center, 2000-
• Member, Academic Advisory Board, School of Management, Tel Aviv, 2000-2002
• Member, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Scientific Advisory Board Committee on Valuing the Protection of Ecological Systems and Services, 2003-
• Member, Pacific Basin Research Center Advisory Committee, 2004-
• Member, Advisory Board, Armenian International Policy Research Group, 2004-

1. Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978)
2. Strategic Planning and Forecasting: Political Risk and Economic Opportunity (with William H. Overholt) (N.Y.: Wiley, 1983).
3. Scheming for the Poor: The Politics of Redistribution in Latin America (Cambridge, MA.: Harvard University Press, 1984).
4. Central American Recovery and Development: The Study Task Force Papers (coeditor with Ann Hubbard) (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1989).
5. Report of the International Commission for Central American Recovery and Development: Poverty, Conflict and Hope (Project Director) (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1989).
6. Natural Resource Policymaking in Developing Countries (with Robert Healy) (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1990).
7. Communities and Sustainable Forestry in Developing Countries (San Francisco: ICS Press, 1994).
8. Why Governments Waste Natural Resources: Policy Failures in Developing Countries (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999). Translated into Japanese (University
9. of Tokyo Press, 2006).
10. The Caspian Sea: A Quest for Environmental Security (co-editor with Natalia Mirovitskaya) (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Scientific Publishers, 2000).
11. Guide to Sustainable Development and Environmental Policy (co-editor with Natalia Mirovitskaya) (Duke University Press, 2001).
12. Revitalizing Political Psychology: The Legacy of Harold D. Lasswell (with Barbara Hirschfelder-Ascher) (Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2005).

1. "Techniques and Accuracy of Demographic Forecasting: Predicting United States' Population Growth," in Garry Brewer and Ronald Brunner, eds., Political Development: A Policy Approach (New York: Free Press, 1975).
2. "The Stability of Communist Electorates: Evidence from a Longitudinal Analysis of French and Italian Aggregate Data" (with Sidney Tarrow), American Journal of Political Science, (Vol. XIX, 3, August, 1975).
3. "Brazil's Future Foreign Relations," in William H. Overholt, ed., The Future of Brazil (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1978).
4. "Problems of Forecasting and Technology Assessment”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Vol. 12, February 1979).
5. "Harold Lasswell's Contributions to the Study of the Future," in Commemoration and Continuing Commitment: Essays in Honor of Harold Dwight Lasswell (New Haven and New York: Yale School of Law and The Policy Sciences Center, 1980).
6. "The World Bank and Problems of the Poor," in United Nations Association, World Progress through International Banking (New York: 1980).
7. "The Forecasting Potential of Complex Models," Policy Sciences (Vol.13, June 1981).
8. "Political Forecasting: The Missing Link," Journal of Forecasting (Vol. 1. 1982).
9. "Political Forecasting and Development Policy," Vierteljahresberichte-Probleme der Entwicklungslander (Vol. 90, December, 1982).
10. "New Development Approaches and the Adaptability of International Agencies: The Case of the World Bank," International Organization (Vol. 37, Summer 1983) [reprinted in Paul F. Diehl, The Politics of International Organizations: Patterns and Insights, (Chicago: Dorsey Press, 1989)].
11. "Comments on Simon's Methodology of Natural Resource Forecasting,” International Journal of Forecasting, (Vol. 1, 1985).
12. "The Evolution of the Policy Sciences," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (Vol. 5, No. 2, 1986) [Reprinted in Evaluation Studies Review Annual 1987, ed. by William R. Shadish and Charles S. Reichardt (Beverley Hills, California: Sage Publications, 1987); also reprinted as "La evolución de las ciencias de políticas: comprender el surgimiento y evitar la caída", in El studio de las políticas públicas, Miguel Angel Porrúa, México, 1992.]
13. "Comments on 'A Cross-Cultural Theory of Political Violence'", Political Psychology (Vol. 7, No. 3, 1986).
14. "The Moralism of Attitudes Supporting Intergroup Violence," Political Psychology (Vol. 7, No. 4, 1986).
15.  "Policy Sciences and the Economic Approach in a 'Post-Positivist' Era," Policy Sciences (Vol. 20, No. 1, 1987).
16. "Subjectivity and the Policy Sciences," Operant Subjectivity (Vol. 10, No. 2, 1987).
17. "Technologies of Mediation: An Assessment of Methods for the Mediation of International Conflicts," (with Steven R. Brown) Proceedings, Second IFAC Conference on Supplemental Ways for Improving International Stability, (New York: Pergamon, 1987).
18. "Sustainable Development and Natural Resource Forecasting," (with Garry D. Brewer), in Clark Binkley et. al., eds., Redirecting the RPA (New Haven: Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, 1988).
19. "Risk, Politics, and Tax Reform: Lessons from some Latin American Experiences," in Malcolm Gillis, ed., Tax Reform in Developing Countries (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1988).
20. "Introduction," in William Ascher and Ann Hubbard, eds., Central American Recovery and Development: The Study Task Force Papers (with Ann Hubbard) (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1989).
21. "On the Convergence of Efficiency and Equity through Neo-Classical Prescriptions," Journal of Inter-American Studies and World Affairs (Vol. 31, Nos. 1-2, 1989).
22. "Beyond Accuracy: Progress and Appraisal in Long-Range Political-Economic Forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting (Vol. 5, No. 4, 1989).
23. "Limits of 'Expert Systems' for Political-Economic Forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change (Vol. 36, Nos. 1-2, 1989).
24. "The World Bank and U.S. Control," in Margaret Karns and Karen Mingst, eds., The United States and Multilateral Institutions (Boston: Unwin Hyman, 1990).
25. "Democracy, Equity and the Myth of the Welfare State in Developing Countries: The Case of Central America," in Kenneth Bauzon, ed., Development and Democratization in the Third World (Washington: Crane Russack, 1992).
26. "Forestry Institutions" (with Marie Lynn Miranda, Olga Corrales and Michael Regan), in Narendra Sharma, ed., Managing the World's Forests (Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt Publishing Company for the World Bank, 1992).
27. "Science and Social Responsibility" (with Ronald D. Brunner) Policy Sciences, (Vol. 25, No. 4, 1992).
28. "The Ambiguous Nature of Forecasts in Project Evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 9, No. 1 (April 1993).
29. “The Changing World and What It Means,” in National Academy of Sciences, Beginning a Dialogue on the Changing Environment for the Physical and Mathematical Sciences (Washington, DC, 1994).
30. "Survey of Issues in Government Policy and Public Management of State Oil and Mining Companies in Developing Countries," Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 18, No. 1 (February 1994).
31. "Knowledge in the Policy Process: Incorporating New Environmental Information in Natural Resources Policymaking" (with Robert Healy), Policy Sciences, February 1995.
32. "Community Natural Resource Management Policies in Colombia and Mexico," in John Montgomery and Dennis Rondinelli, eds., Great Policies: Strategic Innovations in Asia and the Pacific Basin (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995).
33. "The Political and Fiscal Logic of Service Privatization in Developing Countries, " in Yair Aharoni, ed., Changing Role of State Intervention in Services in an Era of Open International Markets (State University of New York Press, 1997).
34. "The Politics of Rent Distribution and Latin American Resource Policy," in Gordon MacDonald, Daniel Nelson and Marc Stern, eds., Latin American Environmental Policy in International Perspective (Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1997).
35. "The Evolution of Postwar Doctrines in Development Economics," in A.W. Coates, ed., The Post-1945 Internationalization of Economics (Duke University Press, 1997).
36. “Public Involvement in Natural Resource Policymaking” (with Toddi Steelman), Policy Sciences, Vol. 30, 1997.
37. “From Oil to Timber: The Political Economy of Off-Budget Development Financing in Indonesia,” Indonesia Journal (Cornell University), Spring 1998, Issue No. 65.
38. “Restructuring the Arrangements between Governments and State Enterprises in the Oil and Mining Sectors,” (with Yair Aharoni), Natural Resources Forum, Vol. 22, No. 3, August 1998.
39. “Strategic Planning of Institutional Reform: Changing Policy Outcomes through Organizational Change,” Iberoamericana: The Nordic Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Vol. 28: Nos. 1-2 (1998): 315-331.
40. “Strategies of Influence for the Conservation of the Sangha River Basin: Insights from the Policy Sciences,” in Heather Eves, Rebecca Hardin and Stephanie Rupp, eds., Resource Use in the Trinational Sangha River Region of Equatorial Africa: Histories, Knowledge Forms, and Institutions (Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Bulletin Series No. 102, 1998).
41. "The Logic of Community Resource Management in Latin America," in U. Hatch and M.E. Swisher, eds., Tropical Managed Ecosystems: New Perspectives on Sustainability (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999).
42. “Administrative Restructuring of Service Delivery in Viet Nam: Decentralization and Institutional Development” (with Dennis Rondinelli), in Jennie Litvack and Dennis Rondinelli, eds., Market Reform in Viet Nam: Building Institutions for Development (Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1999).
43. “Assumption Drag in Economic Development,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change Vol. 62 (1999), pp. 107-110.
44. “Resolving the Hidden Conflicts among Disciplinary Perspectives on Sustainable Development, Policy Sciences, Vol. 32, No. 4 (December 1999), pp. 351-77.
45. “Why Some Countries Waste Natural Resources,” Environment, Vol. 42, No. 2 (March 2000).
46. “Coping with Complexity and Organizational Interests in Natural-Resource Management,” Ecosystems, Vol. 5 (2001).
47. “The Brewer-Kakalik Research on Services for Handicapped Children: A Paradigm of Applied Policy Sciences,” Policy Sciences, Vol. 35(3) (2002).
48. “Students, Civic Engagement, and Justice: Does Our Teaching Reinforce Apathy and Cynicism?” in Christian Hoeckley, ed., Educating for Justice: Liberal Education and the Development of Just Members of Society (Santa Barbara, CA: Westmont College, 2003).
49. “Linking Lasswell’s Political Psychology and the Policy Sciences” (with Barbara Hirschfelder-Ascher), Policy Sciences Vol. 37 (2004): 23-36.
50. “Scientific Information and Uncertainty: Challenges for the Use of Science in Policymaking,” Science and Engineering Ethics Vol. 10, No. 3 (2004): 437-55.
51. “The Resource Curse,” in Elizabeth Bastida, Thomas Waelde, and Janeth Warden, eds., International and Comparative Mineral Law and Policy: Trends and Prospects (Dordrecht: Kluwer, 2005) pp. 569-588.
52. “Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making: Research Priorities,” in National Research Council, Decision Making for the Environment (Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2005).
53. “An Ecological Approach to Creating Active Living Communities,” Annual Review of Public Health 27 (2006), pp. 297-332 (with James Sallis, Robert Cervero, Karla Henderson, M. Katherine Kraft, and Jacqueline Kerr).
54. “Institutional Prerequisites of Policymaking for Sustainable Development,” Proceedings of the Conference on Natural Resources and Environmental Management in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region, Chiang Rai, Thailand: Mae Fah Luang University, 2006), pp. 31-36
55. “Valuation in the Environmental Policy Process” (with Toddi Steelman), Policy Sciences, 39(1)(March 2006).
56. “Long-Term Strategy for Sustainable Development: Strategies to Promote Far- Sighted Action,” Sustainability Science 1(1)(2006).
57. “Foreign Aid & Alternative Approaches to Leadership: Japanese and U.S. Contrasts,” in Dennis Rondinelli and Jay Heffron, eds., Leadership for Development in a Globalizing Society. Lynn Rienner Publishers, forthcoming.
58. “Issues and Best Practices in the Decentralization of Natural-Resource Control in Developing Countries,” in G. Shabbir Cheema and Dennis Rondinelli, eds., Decentralized Governance: Emerging Concepts and Practices Brookings Institution Press, forthcoming.

1. "Latin America and the Politics of Investment," in Hudson Institute, Corporate Environment Study: The World in 1975-85 (Croton-on-Hudson, N.Y., Hudson Institute, January 1974)
2. Contributor, "Latin American Trends", Global Political Assessment, 1975-85.
3. "Report on NSF Project P4S1295-000, Simulation of Symbolization and Other Processes underlying Political Behavior," January 1976.
4. "Report of Trends in North-South Relations, October-March 1975-76," for International Change: A Political Assessment of World Affairs, 1976.
5. Caribbean Trends and the Prospects for Puerto Rico (Principal Investigator), Crotonon- Hudson, N.Y.: Hudson Institute, August 1977).
6. The Prospects for Argentina (Hudson Institute, February 1978).
7. "Mexican Social and Economic Trends"; in The Future of Mexico (Croton-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Hudson Institute, 1980).
8. "The Future of Mexico: Domestic Politics", in The Future of Mexico (Croton-on- Hudson, N.Y.: Hudson Institute, 1980).
9. "Determinants of Economic Policy Directions in the Philippines," for the World Bank, August 1981.
10. "Background Papers on Forecasting & Governance," National Academy of Public Administration, Washington, D.C., September 1985.
11. "Outline for Exploring an Integrated Human Resources Strategy," for the World Bank, November 1988.
12. "The Policy Sciences Framework and Policymaking Strategies in Developing Countries," Proceedings of the First National Colloquium on Public Policy (Mexico City: Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana and Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo Mexicano, 1989).
13. "The Impact of Stringent Limits on a Natural-resource Parastatal: The Case of the Chilean National Copper Corporation (CODELCO)", for the World Bank, February 1991.
14. "Indian Copper Policy and the Protected Niche of Hindustan Copper Limited" (with Yair Aharoni) for the World Bank, November 1991.
15. "Coping with Disappointing Rates of Return of Development Projects that Affect the Environment," Policy Research Working Paper WPS 965, World Bank, August 1992. Washington, D.C. [Background paper for the World Development Report 1992].
16. "The Political Economy of Philippine Food Policy," for the Rockefeller Foundation, Durham, N.C., 1993.
17. "Science and Forestry Policy in Costa Rica and Honduras," Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham, N.C., February 1993.
18. "Political Economy and Problematic Forestry Policies in Indonesia," Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham, N.C., September 1993.
19. "Communities and Sustainable Forestry," [book condensation], Center for Tropical Conservation, Duke University, Durham, N.C, 1994.
20. “Knowledge and Sustainable Resource Management: Coping with Risk and Uncertainty, for the World Bank Sustainable Land and Crop Management Network, August 1998.
21. “Bangkok as a Regional Center: Strengthening Greater Bangkok as an Economic Hub in Asia,” [with Dennis Rondinelli] for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, December 2006.